The Year Of Living Dangerously

The Year Of Living Dangerously

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It was banned from being shown in Indonesia until 2000, after the forced resignation of coup-leader and political successor Suharto in 1998.[7] The title The Year of Living Dangerously is a quote which refers to a famous Italian phrase used by Sukarno: vivere pericolosamente, meaning \"living dangerously\". Sukarno used the line for the title of his Indonesian Independence Day speech of 1964.

This sounds, no doubt, like a foreign correspondent plot from the 1940s. It is not. \"The Year of Living Dangerously\" is a wonderfully complex film about personalities more than events, and we really share the feeling of living in that place, at that time. It does for Indonesia what Bogdanovich's \"Saint Jack\" did for Singapore. The direction is masterful; Weir (whose credits include \"Picnic at Hanging Rock\") is as good with quiet little scenes (like Billy's visit to a dying child) as big, violent ones (like a thrilling attempt by Guy and Billy to film a riot).

Jakarta, Indonesia, 1965. A nation on the verge of violent revolution. Against this turbulent backdrop, three vivid characters get caught up in a strange and consequential love triangle: Guy Hamilton, a reporter freshly-arrived from Sydney with a taste for danger, a ton of ambition, and a nose for news; Jill Bryant, an intensely bright, attractive attaché at the British Embassy, wary of relationships, but yearning for home and family; and Billy Kwan, a diminutive Australian-Chinese photojournalist with a passionate need to remake the world in the image of his ideals. As the political tension builds to a boil, the lives of these three characters become increasingly intertwined, leading to an explosive ending rife with tragedy, danger and romance.

While the latest IMF projections show global growth slowing to 2.9 percent this year, the IMF anticipates a modest rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024. But it is the emerging and developing economies that are providing the momentum.

Global economic prospects have been further penalized by the U.S. Federal Reserve's ill-advised monetary policies, particularly since fall 2021. After years of easy money and rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed misread the market signals after mid-2021, when inflation started to climb rapidly, and Fed chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the threat of soaring prices calling them transitionary.\"

It was a fatal policy mistake, which a year ago led to my warning that U.S. inflation was the global risk of 2022. With the onset of the proxy war only a month later, I predicted that the world economy would have to cope with the risk of stagflationary recession, compounded by energy and food inflation. The rest, as they say, is history.

The year is coming to a close, and the Why It Matters team decided it was a good time to look back at an astounding 12 months. 2022 made it clearer than ever that our local lives are shaped by global forces.

All year long, in fact, the news was global. Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation soared, tensions rose between the U.S. and China, climate change continued its march, and billions tuned in to watch soccer.

O'NEIL: So I think the big story of Latin America this year was migration. And this had been building for many years, but this year the movement of people outside of their countries was above historical levels. We saw over two million people come to the US border. The majority of them, the vast majority from Latin America - Mexicans, Central Americans, Cubans, Haitians, Venezuelans, all types of Latin Americans. But the movement from country to country within the region was even more, you saw millions of Latin Americans living in other countries in Latin America, forced out of their home countries by poverty sometimes, by climate change issues, national disasters, by violence, and often by authoritarian regimes, repressive regimes that made them leave their homes.

O'NEIL: And it is families and it's kids and it's people trying to get out of Venezuela and other parts of South America, move north and many of them try to make it perhaps someday to the United States. But this is a huge change that's really this year. And I would say as we look into the next year, we'll see more migration because there's so many challenges facing countries throughout the region.

O'NEIL: What you're seeing is two things. One that is some good news, bad news. So I'll give you the bad news first. The bad news is voters are upset with their elected politicians and their political parties. We're not unfamiliar to that in the United States, but they're upset about Covid and the devastation in terms of health. We saw hundreds of thousand people die in the region and it was a very rough time for them. They're frustrated with the slow economic growth. Many of these economies haven't rebounded quickly. They're frustrated with violence that's still there, with corruption, with other challenges their governments aren't delivering the services they want, so they're looking for somebody else who will do something different. So that's the bad news, I guess. The good news is that at least in most of the countries around the region, they're channeling their frustrations and perhaps justifiable anger through elections. And Latin America is a place, for all of its challenges and all of the difficulties that it has, it is the most democratic place outside of the European Union in terms of the number of people living under democracy and they're also not living at high income levels. So this is a place, it's the great experiment with democracy and so far it's got some bumps and it's got some warts, but it's hanging on.

SIERRA: So okay, we've got migration, we've got politics and big changes in administrations. What about the year to come What are you keeping an eye on And is there anything the rest of us should know

SIERRA: It sounds like it's just a moment of a lot of change. You're saying people are moving, people are looking for new jobs, new lives, and that across the board there's new administrations, it seems like next year could be a very big year for Latin America.

O'NEIL: It's a big year for Latin America. It's a big year for the United States because many of these issues that are happening there, migration and worries about jobs and economic growth, worries about politics. We're not unfamiliar with that here in the United States. There's a lot of similarities going on in these societies as going on in our own.

SIERRA: I would like to also ask about the story that didn't go under the radar in the Middle East this year, the Iranian protests. I'm curious if you see that story continuing to be as important as it is right now into 2023.

OBADARE: 2 years, but the length belies the bloodiness. Hundreds of thousands of people died. There was mass starvation. There was profound dislocation. There's a lot of pain inflicted on everyday people. So, it took all of 2 years but it led to considerable bloodshed. So I'm jubilating, I'm really really happy that that termination has taken place, that the conflict is over. I'm also keeping my fingers crossed that there will be no recurrence in the foreseeable future.

SIERRA: Welcome back to Why It Matters. So 2022 is coming to an end. New year is starting. We've been around the council talking to some of our experts about regions that may have been overshadowed by bigger news. So we've got Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and we've heard a lot, but we wanted to end the show with you and a global look for next year. So something I feel like I've noticed since I've been at the council is that it feels like sometimes the biggest crises come out of nowhere, at least for the general public. You know, not a lot of people were predicting something like Covid nor the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So all of that said, look into your crystal ball, be in the prediction business. Give me all of the spoilers of what's waiting in the wings that you see for the next year.

HAASS: I fight being in the predictions business. In my last job in government, just over 20 years ago, I ran the Office of Policy Planning, and whenever someone would ask me a question like this, I used to say, I run the office of policy planning, not policy predicting. So here I am violating my own rule. So if I were going to guess, looking at 2023, we know several things. The war in Ukraine will continue. China I do not believe will be attacking Taiwan. China will be facing an awful lot of internal challenges. North Korea will continue to build nuclear devices and missiles. Climate change will continue to advance. We'll still be dealing with the long tail of Covid. If I were a betting man though, Gabby, which of course I'm not, but if I were-

HAASS: I would bet that the biggest international issue of 2023 is Iran. And what I believe is going to come together next year, quite possibly three things at once. One is what we're seeing - these protests in the street and the word protests doesn't quite do them justice because they're large, they're increasingly broadly supported, they're geographically spread around the country. Two, we've got a possible succession at the supreme leader level - he is old and ill. And then thirdly, there is zero chance that the United States and Iran will revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the so-called JCPOA for two reasons. One is we're not going to release resources at a time Iran is taking on these protestors, and second of all, Iran has become one of the biggest sources of arms for Russia in Ukraine. But meanwhile what's happening is Iran is edging ever closer to certain red lines, if you'll pardon the expression, on its nuclear capabilities. So it's quite possible in 2023 we'll see massive challenges to this government, possibly a succession going on, and the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other countries, essentially hotly debating whether Iran has crossed the line of what is tolerable or acceptable in the nuclear domain. So my guess is that one way or another, or maybe all three ways, this will come together and Iran will be the big new international story of 2023. 59ce067264

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